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These models are basically snapshots in time over a period of many days, so you can play time forward into the future and watch low pressure areas form, move, and dissipate. Please be patient. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. and semi pro football dallas 2021. Tropical Tidbits ECMWF Model. Snow depth (in) Update times: ca. of Oklahoma, the Univ. The mesoscale hurricane models HWRF and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits) Forecast for 96L. Tropical Shippings, marine cargo insurance is underwritten by Seven Seas Insurance Company. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. Move forward and backward through forecast times; SPACE Play or pause animation + Speed up or slow down the animation Show previous and future model runs at the same valid time; click View point sounding; click + drag View area-averaged sounding; CTRL + click + drag View vertical cross section; CMD + click + drag View . The 00z ECMWF run from this morning shows us the upper-level steering patters currently present in the Atlantic Basin. Though the focus We're producing your requested images. Levi has a Tropical Tidbits ECMWF Model. Alicia Bentley's real-time GFS analyses and forecast maps. Tips Keywords tropical,tidbit,tidbits,atlantic . Press J to jump to the feed. Privacy Policy: tropicaltidbits.com/privacy-policy.html. tropical cyclone guidance project. Beyond the good medium-range track prediction skill of the ECMWF model, its high resolution has shown potential for useful intensity forecasting. Even if you arent a weather guru, Levi explains what all the major models are saying might happen and way, plus he gives his best projection as well. Details below: 1. 879 talking about this. It is also referred to by some as the ECMWF model or the European model. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Levi Cowan Twitter 2020. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the The mesoscale hurricane models HWRF and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. Current UTC Time In 0Z and 6Z Friday runs, the top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all saw 96L developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. ECMWF tropical cyclones. Forecasts | ECMWF The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. In this conversation. "The comprehensive Earth-system model developed at ECMWF in co-operation with Mto-France forms the basis for all our data assimilation and forecasting activities. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecast System. The ECWMF ensemble model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z out to 10 days in the future. 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Products include map displays, model-derived soundings, and vertical cross sections. snoopy happy dance emoji We hope your visit was informative and enjoyable. ECMWF Hi-Res Atl. These products consist of: Tropical cyclone activity: these products are based on tropical cyclone activity throughout the forecast. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. Though the focus Of course, any forecast model read a week out is usually only effective in suggesting a potential system. The smarter way to ship. ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 11/10/2021/12z. Tropical Cyclones. 98.9k members in the TropicalWeather community. The mesoscale hurricane models HWRF and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. Beginner's Tropical Tidbits Forecast Models Tutorial - YouTube This data comes in 1 hour later than normal. We're producing your requested images. This map shows, as coloured spots, all the latest active tropical cyclones as reported by WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs - the names of these, and their areas of responsibility, are also shown). Heather Archambault's GFS analyses and archive. Climate models like the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and NMME provide monthly to seasonal forecasts. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. Enter key: Update Plot ; Left Arrow: Prev Fcst Hour ; Right Arrow: Next Fcst Hour "c" key: Get Cross Section "m" key: Switch Cross/Zoom Mode "o" key: Lower pressures are indicated in dark . The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. ECMWF (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits) NAVGEM (courtesy of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center) UKMET Model (courtesy of the UQAM Weather Centre) Mesoscale Models NAM from NCEP EMC GEM Model (courtesy of Environment Canada) Penn State/NCAR MM5 (courtesy of NCAR) Rapid Refresh (RAP) from the Earth System Research Laboratory The mesoscale hurricane models HWRF and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. Deterministic refers to cause and effect. Loading. Tropical Tidbits - Weather Prediction Center This is generally within 36 hours. The COAMPS-TC model was the best one at 2-day, 3-day, 4-day, and 5-day forecasts. Global models with imagery for the entire world include the ECMWF, GFS, ICON, CMC, NAVGEM, and their associated ensemble prediction systems. The ECWMF model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble. Mulberry Tree Leaves Poisonous, Soundings with limited data are available. These products consist of: Tropical Tidbits has always been free, and that is because I love making weather data available and keeping you informed during the hurricane season. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. The Centre has one of the largest supercomputer facilities and meteorological data archives in the world ECMWF parameters have been greatly expanded, now available in 3-hr increments, 4 runs per day. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. View ECMWF weather model forecast map image for 500 mb Geopotential Height, MSLP in Continental US on pivotalweather.com. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours. 18 talking about this. 850mb Height & Wind. ECMWF provides a range of graphical products for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) forecasts. In 2019, the HMON model was the best-performing intensity model for one-day to 1.5-day forecasts, with the other four main intensity models close behind. A FOX13news.com site.TM and document.write(new Date().getFullYear()); Fox Television Stations, Inc., and its related entities.All rights reserved. uw-m hurricane forecast model output. Deterministic refers to cause and effect. One of my favorite long-range hurricane weather forecasting sites is Levi Cowans TropicalTidbits.com. Title Tropical Tidbits Tips Description Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan. The wonderful world Though the focus will be on tropical meteorology, it will also be a place for people to stay in touch before, during, and after tropical weather events. What is the difference between an advisory, watch, and a warning? Though the focus The ECWMF model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble. They are produced twice a day from the ENS, twice a week for the extended range (month ahead) and once a month for the seasonal forecasts. ECMWF weather forecast model images of MSLP Norm. This page supplies graphical forecasts from numerical weather models. This website is solely owned and operated by Charles Kenyon Gladu and is in no way officially affiliated with Virginia Tech. As the site grows, though, server costs increase, mostly due to the forecast models page and the data processing required to create all those plots. Please be patient. ECMWF Model - 500mb Height & MSLP for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits For more weather details, visit our Tropical Weather Briefing for NHC forecasts, weather maps, and links. Tuesday evening video update: Watching Four (maybe more?) ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 11/10/2021/12z. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Centre) is an intergovernmental organization supported by 34 countries and based near London. Watching Invest 94L in the Atlantic, and a Disturbance in the Gulf The relative humidity does not change much either, however there is a general increase in the moisture in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters review all of the model data but use their own experience and scientific expertise to arrive at a final forecast. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and the National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of this wave becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. This link does not constitute an endorsement by the NWS of any information, products or services on this site. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Models: NAM 3km CONUS Pivotal Weather He creates an amazing site featuring the best hurricane models and maps. of The ECWMF model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble. Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind! In the middle of the Atlantic sits the subtropical high, which is broken up some by a weak upper-level low pressure. Remember that these are mathematical models with varying initial assumptions. Lower pressures are indicated in dark . sion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours. ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 10/23/2021/12z. Anomaly for North Atlantic. This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields. Hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as non-tropical low-pressure areas are associated with low pressure (Blue). Tropical Tidbits - September 08, 2020 - Watching Four (maybe more?) Model charts. In the main development region (MDR), the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, the SSTs are more than warm enough to support tropical cyclogenesis. Acronym Dicitonary And Glossary ACS Universal Remote WG Despite this, it has shown skill in forecasting Tropical Cyclones. sion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership. As of June 20, 2006, the NAM model has been running with a non-hydrostatic version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at its core. Converting UTC (ZULU) Time. "The comprehensive Earth-system model developed at ECMWF in co-operation with Mto-France forms the basis for all our data assimilation and forecasting activities. The mesoscale hurricane models HWRF and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. The ECMWF. This may take a while, please be patient. Get our Free VIPP Podcast - it's a way to join our community of Very Important People Preparing. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. He only does these when there is a storm system worthy of tracking. We can handle virtually any shipment! The mesoscale hurricane models HAFS, HWRF, and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. 87.9k members in the TropicalWeather community. 12:00am-1:00am and 12:00pm-1:00pm for master run and 2:30am and 2:30pm for ensemble data. This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. Tropical Shipping's, marine cargo insurance is underwritten by Seven Seas Insurance Company. tropical tidbits ecmwfgrantchester sidney and violet Posted by on May 21st, 2021 . As of June 20, 2006, the NAM model has been running with a non-hydrostatic version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at its core. These models are basically snapshots in time over a period of many days, so you can play time forward into the future and watch low pressure areas form, move, and dissipate. ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) from 10/23/2021/12z. Click on your county above for specific evacuation zones, and emergency contacts. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ECMWF. Loading. Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. 14 day forecast (ECMWF-IFS/EPS, graphs with ranges) Forecast XL (Graph and table up to 10 days - choose your model) Forecast Ensemble (Up to 5 models, multiple runs, graph up to 16 days) Forecast Ensemble Heatmaps (Up to 5 models, multiple runs, graph up to 16 days) EXTRA; Long range forecast. View ECMWF Hi-Res weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com. The ECWMF model runs both in a "deterministic forecast" mode and as an ensemble. All models and images are owned by their respective owners - the NWS, NCEP, CPC, HPC, SPC, CMC, ECMWF, ESRL, UCAR, TornadoVideos.net, PSU, RaleighWX, Unisys Weather . Tropical Tidbits Note from Audra: A friend of mine told me about TropicalTidbits.com earlier this week. SSEC @ University of Wisconsin-Madison MODIS archive. ECMWF provides a range of graphical products for tropical cyclone (tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) forecasts. This is a subreddit designed for all sorts of tropical cyclone weather discussion. GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. The only real lulls exist along the ITCZ where Disturbances 1-3 are, and there is some relatively light wind shear as well around where Disturbance 4 is located, as well as for most of the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached. Pro tip: while GFS & ECMWF count sleet/frzr in their snowfall calculations, Canadian models do not. Though the focus will be on tropical meteorology, it will also be a place for people to stay in touch before, during, and after tropical weather events. Weather Statements for Selected Locations [ Customize Locations ] Tropical Weather Outlook ( Graphical - 5 day - Discussion - Sat - Wundermap) 9:05 AM EDT 16-Jan-2023 ( History ) Coastal Hazard Message (Florida Panhandle) 3:23 AM EDT ( History) Coastal Hazard . Good morning, folks! A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached. Through precise integration of monitored and computerized refrigeration equipment with efficient cargo movement systems, Tropical ensures reliable shipments of chilled and frozen products. The ECMWF allows the storm to develop a tighter circulation before the drier air can intrude, and eventually the Euro solutions depicts the storm as a strengthening hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas. Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan. Weird Things is proudly powered by [#NerdTweet] While the 0Z ECMWF nudged slightly toward the GFS with more vorticity near NW Florida, the GFS is still whiffing a bit. 108k members in the TropicalWeather community. We're producing your requested images. Learn how to forecast and use the Tropical Tidbits weather models. In this conversation. Evacuate immediately if so ordered. 87.9k members in the TropicalWeather community. The GFS on the other hand, does show a weak velocity signature at 700mb, showing that the system is attempting to form a tighter circulation before coming ashore around the same time Wednesday afternoon. We are watching a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, which will trek westward and approach Central America by Friday or Saturday. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. . GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or pip install ecmwf_models To create a full development environment with conda, the environment. Celebrating 10 years of tropicaltidbits.com with a significant expansion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership. The ECWMF ensemble model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z out to 10 days in the future. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. Tropical Systems in the Atlantic. Coastal flooding becomes a risk too if a legitimate tropical storm forms. PLEASE if you appreciate my website and the information I provide then consider a one time or recurring donation!! Thank you to all of these websites for information and graphics we use on this website. This may take a while, please be patient. User Manual: ACS Universal Remote WG . This may take a while, please be patient. Climate models like the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and NMME provide monthly to seasonal forecasts. This page supplies graphical forecasts from numerical weather models. People can share their observations, start their own threads that may be location specific, or post in the official threads for each storm. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users As the site grows, though, server costs increase, mostly due to the forecast models page and The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z out to 10 days in the future. The remnant low is expected to dissipate Sunday morning. This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Peak winds: 215 kilometers per hour (115 knots) Minimum pressure: 955 millibars (28.20 inches) Fatalities: 3. The closer the lines are to each other, the stronger the winds. Hurricane tracking, tropical models, and more storm coverage. As I had mentioned earlier, the National Hurricane Center has assigned the tropical wave 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands as Invest 94L, however throughout this discussion, weve been referring to this system as Disturbance 2. Overnight, the National Hurricane Center added another region that theyre watching for the potential for tropical cyclone development, this time much closer to home in the northern Gulf of Mexico As Sincere said in the last post, even though its still early in the season, were keeping a close eye on these two disturbances and any hazards that they may bring. Tropical Tidbits The NWS provides a link to this site because it may contain related information of interest to you. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached. These products consist of: Tropical cyclone activity: these products are based on tropical cyclone activity throughout the forecast. ECMWF Forecasts Hide analysis times / negative forecast hours (requires refresh), Move forward and backward through forecast times, Show previous and future model runs at the same valid time, NOAA Operational Model Archive Distribution System, Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Marshall Shepherd. This data product is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ECMWF. Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs on tropical cyclones as they happen, and provides data for analyzing them in real time. 1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes . One of the best models is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here is a map from Tropical Tidbits showing the ECMWF. This guidance is useful for analyzing the range of possibilities for TC track and intensity in the long-range portion of the forecast. Tropical Tidbits The NWS provides a link to this site because it may contain related information of interest to you. (Very Important People Preparation) News. More information about the tropical cyclone products can be found in ECMWF Newsletter No. NOAA NESDIS CIRA Tropical RAMSDIS online. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ECMWF. Tuesday evening video update: Watching Four (maybe more?) Hi-Res ECMWF Modeling. The dearchivation takes up to one minute. what is the social ecological model of health, franklin high school power monday schedule, what happened to jamie's wife on blue bloods, lackland afb bioenvironmental engineering phone number, domain and range interval notation parabola. Use hurricane tracking maps, 5-day forecasts, computer models and satellite imagery to track . Monday evening video discussion on Invest 92L, which could become a tropical storm near the northeast Caribbean on Levi Cowan Twitter 2020. . Hanoi Metro Population. Hurricane Season 2023 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. The latest Tweets from Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits). User Manual: ACS Universal Remote WG . Science says probably, Researchers link AA batteries to tornado paths with hopes to eventually steer the storms with electrical fields, Hurricane Zeta post-season analysis shows Cat 3 at landfall. The shear situation is largely similar to the situation now, as the first upper-level ridge over the region retreats westward and weakens, and the interaction between the upper-level low off the East Coast and a strengthening ridge off the Southeast Coast lead to relatively high wind shear values off the coast of Florida. In this conversation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. In the middle of the Atlantic, most of the shear is the result of the easterly surface winds underneath the mid-level westerlies of the subtropical jet. The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, the Centre) is an intergovernmental organization supported by 34 countries and based near London. 8959 norma pl west hollywood ca 90069. Celebrating 10 years of tropicaltidbits.comwith a significant expansion of ECMWF plots, a fresh coat of (optional) paint, and a new partnership. As Tropical Storm Ian moves north, the ECMWF is trending toward a new storm forming behind it late this week: https://t.co/abLuPkFKbC GFS and ECMWF long-range are showing activity as the Cape Verde season gets poised to begin, and the Atlantic may come back to life in a couple weeks or so as we dig into August, the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. 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